US, allies drag feet on Iran nuclear deal

Biden tight-lipped over resuming talks because of 2024 elections, analysts say

Attempts to revive the Iran nuclear deal have failed because the United States and its Western allies have dragged their feet amid their paled expectations that the Iranian government would collapse as domestic protests mounted, analysts have said.

They also pointed to next year's US presidential elections as the reason the Joe Biden administration has been tight-lipped on resuming negotiations on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, over concerns it would "damage its chances of a reelection".

"Last year, amid ongoing protests in Iran, the US and the European Union appeared to have calculated that the Islamic Republic of Iran would either completely collapse or at least be under severe pressure," Mehran Kamrava, professor of government at Georgetown University in Qatar, told China Daily as to why talks were canceled.

Not only has the Islamic republic not fallen, but it has also been officially invited to join BRICS in addition to having previously joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, he said.

Late last month, BRICS members — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — decided to invite Iran and five other countries to join the bloc.

On Monday, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani said the final draft resolution on the nuclear talks was ready to be concluded in September last year to prepare the ground for all sides to return to the deal.

However, the US and its European allies "had miscalculations after the unrest in Iran" and lost the opportunity to reach an agreement by "foot-dragging and refraining from concluding the negotiations", Kanaani was quoted by the Iranian Students' News Agency as saying, Xinhua News Agency reported.

"We have to accept the point that it was the United States that withdrew from the JCPOA," Ali Khansari, an international affairs analyst in Teheran, told China Daily.

Given the Western sanctions on Iran, Khansari said it was natural for Teheran to pursue its "neighborhood policy", which aims to improve relations with neighbors and adopt "the policy of looking to the East".

In response to a question about whether the EU would decline to cooperate in the lifting of restrictions on Iran's missile program based on a clause in the JCPOA on Monday, Kanaani said Teheran would take corresponding measures based on the other side's actions.

He said Iran will remain committed to the diplomatic process to remove the US sanctions and pursue "neutralization" of the embargoes, as the country has managed to export its oil to global markets despite the sanctions.

Western mistake

Khansari said perhaps the most important reason for the nonfulfillment of the JCPOA and its revival was the "internal conditions of the US, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine", which has drawn the attention of the international community, followed by "the mistake of some Western elites about Iran's internal protests".

The West thought those demonstrations would lead to structural changes or even the collapse of the Iranian government but that possibility is now close to zero, he said.

"In the current situation, an agreement like the JCPOA or something like it seems impossible, but the efforts of both sides to control the tensions have led to hope for the future, which all depends on the international and domestic conditions of Iran and the United States," he added.