Theft, choosy consumers show up on US retailers' bottom lines

Macy's stock was down 14 percent, and a number of other retail stocks closed lower as investors pondered the direction of consumer spending.

For the period ended July 29, Dick's earned $244 million, or $2.82 per share, compared with $319 million, or $3.25 per share, a year ago.

Macy's sales were $5.13 billion in the quarter, down 8 percent from a year ago, but above Wall Street forecasts.

Dick's sales slowed after a pandemic-driven surge for outdoor gear, leaving the Pittsburgh-based company with excess inventory. Executives also said that thefts of merchandise were higher than expected.

"Organized retail crime and theft in general is an increasingly serious issue impacting many retailers," Dick's Sporting Goods CEO Lauren Hobart said on Tuesday. "Our Q2 profitability was short of our expectations due in large part to the impact of elevated inventory shrink, an increasingly serious issue impacting many retailers," she said.

Shrink is the term that retailers use when describing organized theft or shoplifting of inventory.

Neil Saunders, managing director of GlobalData, said in a statement that a large part of Dick's decline in quarterly profit appeared to be from theft.

"In our view this is a particular issue for Dick's as many of the products it sells are desirable and have good resale values," he said. "While the problem is not one of Dick's making, management does not seem to have any immediate solutions to the problem which could, if left unchecked, continue to weigh down on the bottom line."

Dick's Sporting Goods Chairman Ed Stack said, "We think we're doing the best we can to try to curtail it [theft] with the security that we have in the stores, working with local authorities."

In a note Tuesday, Goldman Sachs analyst Kate McShane said, "We note the company's commentary on shrink being an issue in the quarter is new for Dick's as it was not flagged as a meaningful headwind last quarter," Markets Insider reported.

Macy's reported declining sales in the June quarter and also noted that more shoppers are late on their credit-card payments.

Delinquencies are viewed as a proxy for consumer health, and missed payments deplete a key source of revenue, The Wall Street Journal reported.

Credit card balances have jumped, with delinquencies at an 11-year high in the second quarter, according to data last week from the New York Fed.

"Consumers still have good savings, but they are being more judicious in how they spend," Macy's Chief Executive Jeff Gennette said. "More of their money is going to services and experiences."

Such a retail environment helps stores with discounts and delivery, the Journal reported. Companies such as Walmart, Amazon and TJX, which owns stores such as T.J. Maxx and HomeGoods, outperformed.

While Macy's had a sober outlook on consumer health, a Commerce Department report showed retail sales increased more than expected in July as Americans boosted online purchases and dined out more.

There are, however, concerns that spending could decelerate. Some economists argue that slowing job growth could curb wage gains. Excess savings also are being depleted, and millions will resume repaying their student loans after a moratorium ended.

Macy's also said that rising theft from organized shoplifting rings has forced the venerable New York City-based retailer to move high-theft items away from store entrances.

Many other retailers have struggled with theft concerns.

In May, Target said theft was cutting into its bottom line and that it expected related losses could be $500 million more than last year, when losses from theft were estimated to be anywhere from $700 million to $800 million. That means losses could top $1.2 billion this year.

During Target's second-quarter conference call on Aug 16, CEO Brian Cornell said that during the first five months of this year, the Minneapolis-based company's stores saw a 120 percent increase in theft incidents involving violence or threats of violence compared with the year-ago period.

Cornell said the retailer is facing "an unacceptable amount of retail theft and organized retail crime".

Home Depot CFO Richard McPhail said on a recent earnings call: "In the second quarter, our gross margin was 33 percent, a decrease of 8 basis points from the second quarter last year, primarily driven by shrink.

"Shrink has been a consistent pressure over the last several quarters and even the last few years. It's something we're tackling every day," he said.

Retail shrink was a nearly $100 billion problem for the industry as of 2021, the last year data was collected, the National Retail Federation (NRF) found. That total is more than double the $45.2 billion in 2015.

The issue gained national attention last weekend after a "flash rob" by up to 50 people at a Nordstrom in Los Angeles, where to $100,000 in merchandise was stolen.

"I can tell you that never before have I seen what I'm seeing today," David Johnston, NRF vice-president of asset protection and retail operations, told Yahoo Finance. "The retailers are not crying wolf. They are highlighting a major issue out there.

"What we're seeing today requires the government, the community, the retailer, everyone ... including the consumer, to take action," Johnston said.

Agencies contributed to this story.