DBS upbeat on China's economic rebound in current half, next year

With China's latest announcements of policies to stimulate the economy, "there's no doubt" that in the second half and into 2024, there will be an economic rebound, said Sebastian Paredes, head of North Asia of DBS and chairman of DBS(China) Ltd.

Despite global concerns about the country's economy in the post-COVID period, Paredes believes the softness in China's performance is temporary.

China's consumer price index, a main gauge of inflation, dropped 0.3 percent year-on-year in July after a flat reading in June, said the National Bureau of Statistics. To stimulate economic recovery, China recently issued top-level guidance and two detailed documents to beef up consumption and ease home purchasing restrictions.

"Stimulation regulations will progressively have a positive impact on spending as well as the confidence of individuals. Once consumers are beginning to spend, we will see a positive result on reactivation," he said.

DBS' forecast for China's GDP growth in 2024 is 4.5 percent.

"Just imagine an economy of $18 trillion GDP growing at 5 or 4.5 percent annually. This is an incremental GDP of close to $1 trillion," Paredes said on the sidelines of the DBS Greater Bay Area Conference 2023 on Wednesday in Shenzhen, Guangdong province.

He is optimistic about the opportunities that this growth will entail and pointed out the new industries that are prompting the growth, including electric vehicles, batteries, new energy industries and all the ecosystems around them.

In addition, Paredes is upbeat about China's wealth management market.

"As the market continues to develop, the wealth of Chinese citizens accumulates with high savings rates. The current savings rate, expressed in the national savings to GDP ratio, is at a historically high level of 47 percent. There is a mounting need for better all-round wealth management alternatives," he said.

"China's wealth management industry is expanding at an annual rate of 6 to 8 percent. The total assets under management of customers in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area alone have already passed the $1 trillion mark."

As for debt issues in the real estate industry, he said his bank will continue to bolster development of the sector. Moreover, he has seen foreign real estate players interested in expanding their business in China, and DBS is supporting them in their efforts.

The China Index Academy said 66 real estate companies have defaulted on their debts, six of which are new to the list in the first half of this year.

Yang Delong, chief economist of Shenzhen-based First Seafront Fund, agreed that the central government will increase efforts to boost economic growth in the second half, focusing on driving investment, promoting consumption recovery and maintaining the stability of foreign trade.

"After these policies are gradually implemented, they are expected to provide support for economic recovery and drive demand growth. We are at the turning point of economic growth and market confidence," Yang said.