Misjudgements narrowing path to US' soft landing

The US Federal Reserve announced its sixth interest rate hike this year on Wednesday, the latest move in its battle to bring down the decades-high inflation that is plaguing the economy of the United States. The 0.75 percent hike brings the US central bank's benchmark lending rate to a range of 3.75 percent to 4 percent, the highest since 2008.

However, the "toughest policy move since the 1980s" as the media called it might further deepen the economic pains for businesses and households in the US by pushing up the cost of borrowing even further. Not to mention the chance it could trigger a recession.

The inflation in the US cannot be resolved by the Fed's interest rate hikes as it is a result of multiple factors, particularly the Joe Biden administration's grand spending plans that are based on the previous limitless quantitative easing monetary policy and stretch far beyond its own term, the trade frictions the US has initiated with various economies, as well as the Ukraine crisis that the US has sought to prolong for its own narrow ends.

In other words, the inflation is largely a self-inflicted aftermath of the US' own policies and practices. Without the Biden administration correcting its policies and misjudgments, the Fed will continue to be made a scapegoat for its shortsightedness, which is also encumbering the world through the spillover effects of the Fed's policy adjustments. That explains why the Fed has always appeared reserved when it comes to the actual effects it desires from what should only be described as radical interest rate hikes in a bid to bring down the inflation this year, as it is well aware that conventional solutions cannot tackle the unconventional challenge without the true causes being addressed.

No wonder in a news conference on the move the Fed held on Wednesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged that the path to a soft landing — cooling the economy without entering into a recession — had narrowed, although he said it is still possible.

"The inflation picture has become more and more challenging over the course of this year," he said. "That means we have to have policy be more restrictive, and that narrows the path to a soft landing."

The Fed is doing all it can, even if that will unavoidably push the US to a dilemma of recession on the one hand and inflation on the other.

That's why the Federal Open Market Committee anticipates that the Fed may choose to ease away from aggressive rate hikes into smaller, but longer-term increases.