Nothing positive about negative gas prices

As Europe grapples with a natural gas shortage, some media outlets recently hyped up reports of negative gas contract prices. However, this is a temporary phenomenon and the energy dilemma can only worsen with time.

How did gas contract prices turn negative? European countries have increased global purchases of natural gas following the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Ships carrying liquefied natural gas are flocking to Europe's ports. However, given that Europe has for long relied on stable and cheap gas supplies from Russia, it has not built sufficient storage facilities for LNG. Therefore, the ports are unable to cope as shiploads of LNG arrive at its doors.

European media reports say at least 50 LNG carriers are waiting to be unloaded off European coastlines and some shipowners are so eager to return that they are even willing to give gas for free, resulting in the temporary bizarre phenomenon of negative contract prices in Europe.

Despite the ports choking on LNG, experts say there is no guarantee that Europe will have a warm winter this year. Even if Europe's storage capacity is used 100 percent, it will only meet peak demand for a little more than two months in winter, and increased LNG purchases will hardly meet the gap in Russian gas supplies.

In fact, the energy crisis is profoundly affecting Europe. The International Monetary Fund estimates that European economic growth could dip sharply in 2023, and as inflation shows no clear sign of abating, some Eastern and central European countries are even heading for a technical recession. European analysts believe that if there is a real disruption in European gas supplies this winter, it could see further civil unrest, risks and government instability.

Some experts feel Europe's continued prosperity hinges on cheap energy supplies, mainly from Russia, good quality and low price industrial goods, mostly from China, and high technology and high value-added industries.

Negative gas contract prices are only "black swan" events. Even if Europeans withstand this winter, the needs of future winters remain to be addressed.