Abe's death may transform Japan's political landscape

Editor's note: Japan's former prime minister Shinzo Abe died on Friday, hours after he was shot while campaigning for a parliamentary election in Nara. Three experts shared their views on this incident with China Daily's Zhang Xi. Excerpts follow:

Assassination's far-reaching impact

Anyway the incident is shocking and rare, and brutal violence should be condemned. But from an angle of historical analysis, Shinzo Abe's assassination may reshape Japan's democratic politics. If the alleged assailant is a right-winger, then all politicians will fear attacks for expressing their views, and liberal forces will fade away, making way for military forces. A similar thing had happened before Japan's full-scale invasion of China in 1937.

Abe's death shows that Japan's democratic politics is being questioned domestically. Japan's military and right-wing groups do not acknowledge democratic politics. They think democratic politicians' international strategies hinder military forces. If the military forces control the government, then they may take bolder actions.

The ideological confrontation may be fueled and some ill-intentional people may look for an excuse for external expansion.

Wang Meiping, a professor in the Faculty of History, Nankai University

Incident might accelerate military transformation

Shinzo Abe's assassination may accelerate Japan's military transformation. Because Japan's politicians have been seeking to revise peace constitution, the incident may win domestic support for their political goals. The country may boost defense spending, strengthen Japan-US alliance, advance cooperation with NATO, and even bridge NATO and the Asia-Pacific region.

Further, Japan's partisan politics will undergo reorganization. History has proved that right-wing populism rises in Japan whenever politicians are assassinated. So China-Japan relations should be characterized by three elements: competitive, adversarial and cooperative, rather than a "one-size-fits-all" approach.

Yin Xiaoliang, professor at the Institute of Japanese Studies, Nankai University

Direct impact on Sunday's polls

Shinzo Abe's assassination may affect Sunday's parliamentary election in three ways. Although the Upper House election campaigns came to a halt across Japan on July 8, Sunday's election will not be canceled or postponed. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida condemned the attack on Abe as a "cowardly and barbaric act committed in the middle of an election, which is the basis of democracy". In a bid to protect the democratic system, a high voter turnout may be secured in the July 10 election. Abe and his faction (the largest in the party) continued to exert strong influence over LDP policy, so Abe's death may help the LDP garner support in the election.

Besides, the election means a lot for the constitutional revision promoted by Abe. Any constitutional change must be approved by two-thirds of both houses of parliament and pro-revision forces already have a two-thirds majority in the lower house. Any revision must also be approved by a majority of voters in a referendum.

Abe's thoughts have been inherited by his successors, but his death will transform the LDP's political landscape.

Tang Yongliang, researcher at the Institute of Japanese Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

The views don't necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

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