NBS: China can keep price swings mild

While global commodity prices appear set to continue their wild swings in the rest of this year, China is still well-grounded to keep such fluctuations relatively mild, thanks to its adequate supplies and policies to ensure stable growth, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday.

Fu Linghui, the spokesperson of the NBS, told media that Russia is a major exporter of energy, food and fertilizers while Ukraine accounts for a considerable portion of the world's corn and wheat exports. Their continuing conflict, and related sanctions, have affected the output of commodities and disrupted global supply chains.

Data in the public domain showed that the average price of Brent crude oil was $97.9 per barrel during the first quarter of the year, up almost 23 percent quarter-on-quarter and nearly 60 percent year-on-year. It touched a 10-year high of $127.98 per barrel in early March.

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, its FAO Food Price Index reached 159.3 points in March, up 12.6 percent from a month earlier and the highest level since the gauge was set up in 1990. Prices of vegetable oil, grains and meat all touched a historic high.

Demand for commodities will continue to grow all over the world amid the global economic recovery. But in anticipation of a supply shortage, demand of storing certain commodities in advance will also rise, which will likely aggravate the imbalance between supply and demand, said Fu.

The ongoing sanctions and counter-sanctions have impaired the efficiency of global supply chains, pushing up delivery and trading costs of commodities. So, the odds are high that global commodity prices will fluctuate at a high level in the following months, he said.

Experts from Bank of America estimated that Brent crude will surge to $130 per barrel in the second quarter, while the forecast from Goldman Sachs is $120 per barrel.

China's Consumer Price Index in March increased 1.5 percent year-on-year. The rising vegetable and energy prices have been the major elements pushing up the March reading, Fu said.

Vegetable prices surged 17.2 percent year-on-year in March due to the resurgence of COVID-19 and weather reasons. Domestic energy prices jumped 13.4 percent year-on-year in March. The combined hikes of the two gauges have accounted for nearly 90 percent of the CPI increase in March, Fu said.

While the food CPI dropped 1.5 percent year-on-year in March, that of industrial consumer goods and services climbed 3.5 percent and 1.1 percent year-on-year, respectively.

Although there are elements affecting the CPI in the short term, including impact from the external markets and pressure on supplies of fresh food, there are still advantageous elements that will ensure the CPI increase at a mild level, Fu said.

For one thing, consumption and investment are still recovering, which will exert limited impact on prices. The supply and storage of food are adequate at present. The commercial and service markets can also provide enough supply. Prices of industrial consumer goods, excluding energy, are at a low level.

Also, policies aiming to secure market supply and stabilize prices will continue to take effect. Therefore, China is well-grounded to ensure prices increase by a mild degree, he said.