Morrison's military buildup plan risky business

The Scott Morrison administration recently unveiled Australia's largest military expansion plan for nearly 40 years.

The country intends to enlarge its regular armed forces from the current 60,000 personnel to 80,000 by 2040, which will cost about AU$38 billion ($28.29 billion).

Initially, the Australian defense ministry planned to increase the number by 12,500. But the Morrison government doesn't think that is enough to cope with the "security threat" the country is facing, and at last managed to increase the hike to 20,000.

Although that might still seem a small number to countries like the United States, the hike is larger than the current size of the country's air force or navy, which consist of 15,087 and 15,449 personnel respectively.

So the plan represents a big jump in size for the Australian military. It is believed that new recruits will swell Australia's submarine force, information warfare force, self-propelled gun force, and missile and satellite forces.

The military buildup is also a need for Morrison to win the federal election of Australia that will start in about one month. Given the lackluster results his administration has obtained in recent polls, which fell behind the center-left Labor Party, the prime minister urgently needs a boost in his approval rating, which has fallen below 30 percent in recent months.

Last month, Morrison's Liberal Party lost power to the Labor Party in the state of South Australia. If that momentum is not checked, it will be very difficult for him to win the upcoming federal election.

As the Labor Party calls for reducing military spending, the timing of Morrison's announcement of the large military buildup plan can be taken as a sign that he seeks to win the election by hyping up threats from China and Russia and blindly betting Australia's future on the US.

The plan, if carried out, will also stimulate the growth of the country's military industrial groups and help ease the downward pressure on the national economy.

The Ukraine crisis has offered Morrison an opportunity to justify his military buildup plan. In so doing, he is trying to pull any fence-sitters to his side in the voting.

The plan highlights Canberra's intention to pursue an aggressive foreign policy in the Asia-Pacific aimed at influencing regional affairs, deterring potential threats and utilizing force if necessary.

However, the Morrison administration has failed to settle the big account: even if it successfully expands the military, it will be difficult for Australia to play a role in the process of geopolitical changes. On the contrary, it will only become a bigger risk to regional stability.