Indian diplomacy shift in the making

A majority of Western countries and their allies have criticized Russia for ordering the special military operation in Ukraine and taken every possible measure to contain Russia, except directly participating in the conflict against Moscow. These developments have put India, which traditionally has had friendly relations with Russia but in recent years has been warming up to the United States, in a dilemma.

However, India seems to have distanced itself from the Western camp and adopted what can be described as a pro-Russia stance over the Ukraine crisis. Thanks to India's unique relationship with Russia, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has not triggered an anti-Russia wave in India. On the contrary, this may well turn out to be a rare opportunity for India to change its diplomatic strategy.

A smooth operator in US-Russia tussle

Compared with the US and its traditional allies, India's statement on Russia's special military operation is quite intriguing. The Indian leadership has not directly opposed Russia's special military operation nor has it followed the US and the European Union in condemning Moscow. And without shying away from commenting on the Ukraine crisis, the Indian leadership has stressed that the involved parties should return to dialogue and diplomacy to end the conflict.

Apart from refusing to join the Western powers to impose sanctions on Russia, India, on the contrary, has also made efforts to strengthen cooperation with Moscow on energy and economic issues. According to Reuters, the Indian Oil Corporation Limited, India's largest oil refining enterprise, bought 3 million barrels of Russian crude oil after the US and European countries cancelled a large number of energy orders with Russia.

When almost the entire Western world is determined to create a "cold winter" for the Russian economy, India's move is not only unusual, but can be seen as a source of energy for a country besieged by storm.

The good relationship between India and Russia dates back to before the October Revolution. Even after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, India-Russia relations continued to improve. Objectively speaking, Russia's contribution to India's development and improving India's international status cannot be underestimated.

India, a self-proclaimed leader of the developing world, is eager to change the current international system and become a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, though the stance of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and other Russian leaders has been ambiguous on different occasions on India's bid to become a permanent member of the Security Council.

Moscow has also often supported New Delhi by remaining silent when the latter was in a disadvantageous position in the international community on issues such as the Kashmir dispute, and religious conflicts.

Moreover, to become a regional military power, India is highly dependent on imports from Russia. As of 2017, about 68 percent of the weapons and equipment of the Indian Armed Forces came from Russia, making India the second-largest purchaser of the Russian defense industry.

Yet, of late, New Delhi seems to be moving closer to Washington with the world's sole superpower gradually upgrading its "Asia-Pacific rebalancing" to the "Indo-Pacific strategy" and brandishing its sticks against Russia and China. Naturally, this has put India-Russia ties to the acid test.

In addition, India is trying to expand its influence in Central Asia. For example, in 2019, it established the India-Central Asia dialogue mechanism even though Russia has always been sensitive to the involvement of foreign forces in Central Asia.

India's cordiality with the US and its involvement in Central Asia have affected India-Russia relations to a certain extent. But the Ukraine-Russia conflict has given the two sides a new opportunity to seek common ground while shelving their small differences, in order to upgrade the long-term "non-aligned but allied" relationship.

Change evident in Indian diplomacy

The changes in the international situation after the Russia-Ukraine conflict reflect the differences in the interests and paths of India and the US. India often considers itself a victim of colonialism, even neo-liberalism, and has long faced international criticism on issues such as the India-Pakistan conflict and the sovereignty of Kashmir.

Obstacles and confusions are expected, especially on the issue of disputed territory, if India blindly follows the West to impose sanctions on Russia. When it comes to ideology, although India often emphasizes the importance of values such as freedom and democracy, it does so more out of practical consideration. So imposing economic and financial sanctions on a country only because of differences in values or hostile relations would be a price too high for India as a large developing country to pay.

That's also one of the reasons why India emphasizes regional cooperation rather than geopolitical design, including the Indo-Pacific strategy, in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. Expansion of conflicts with major powers and neighboring countries is not in India's national interests.

In recent years, India has taken a series of measures to strengthen relations with the US to achieve its goal of becoming a regional power. But the Russia-Ukraine conflict has revealed the US' economic and energy bastions are not impregnable, and its alliance system has entered a stage of sacrificing the interests of the US' foot soldiers in a bid to maintain Washington's fragile global hegemony.

Besides, if India follows the US blindly it will always be in a subordinate position both politically and economically. It would be detrimental to India's regional ambitions. It will also be difficult for India to upgrade its industries and achieve rapid economic and social development. This is not difficult for the Indian leadership to realize.

Therefore, appropriately reversing the pro-US policy and increasing cooperation with Russia, China and other countries in a pragmatic manner is an option, at least a phased option, which India should seriously consider to safeguard its national interests and raise its international status.

Zhuang Genghua is an assistant research fellow at the Institute for Studies on the Mediterranean Rim of the Zhejiang International Studies University, and Ma Xiaolin is the director of and a professor at the same institute.

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