Trade sparks high hopes, cautious optimism

Those measures also included stabilizing growth of processing trade, cultivating businesses that have strong competitiveness in both global export and import markets, and enhancing trade liberalization and facilitation.

Such measures aim to actualize the full potential of exports, secure industrial and supply chains for foreign trade, and stabilize market entities and guarantee their orders, the guidelines said.

At the annual Central Economic Work Conference in December, which outlined key tasks for 2022 in economics, the top authorities have also urged higher-level opening-up, adopting multiple measures to stabilize foreign trade, securing industrial and supply chains, and making more efforts to attract more foreign investment.

Huo Jianguo, vice-chairman of the Beijing-based China Society for World Trade Organization Studies, which is also known as the CWTO, forecast that the nation's foreign trade will grow at around 8 to 10 percent this year, much lower than the growth rate registered last year.

Whether or not the eventual growth rate will exceed 8 percent depends largely on the actual effects of policy measures the authorities are expected to take, especially in the export sector, Huo said.

According to the General Administration of Customs, exports reached 21.73 trillion yuan ($3.42 trillion) in 2021, up 21.2 percent year-on-year, while imports expanded by 21.5 percent to 17.37 trillion yuan.

With such high comparison base, the growth rate of foreign trade in 2022 is likely to slow down, said Gao Shiwang, director of the industry development department at the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products.

Exports of machinery and electronic products grew by 20.4 percent year-on-year to 12.83 trillion yuan last year, accounting for 59 percent of the total exports, the GAC said.

In the first 10 months of 2021, exports in the sector exceeded the whole-year value of 2020.

"Global economic growth will support overseas demand for Chinese products. However, transfers of orders from China to other countries that have resumed production and the fading advantage in prices of Chinese products due to the increase in maritime shipment costs are likely to depress the growth of exports," Gao said, adding raw material costs and changes in renminbi exchange rates will also pile pressure on foreign trade enterprises.

However, he said the contribution of machinery and electronic products to China's exports and imports has been stable and significant over the years, and the steady trend will likely continue.

Such products have taken up around 58 percent of China's yearly exports for most of the past 15 years. Their combined imports and exports often accounted for about 52 percent of the nation's total foreign trade, he said.

"With high production capacity, China's trade in machinery and electronic products has been high in world rankings for both volume and market share. Trade growth prospects of such technology-intensive and high value-added products will remain positive," he said.