Tough challenges ahead for Japan after election

Japan's ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito has retained its majority in the lower house of parliament in the 49th general election. Although the LDP, led by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, won 261 of the 465 seats in the lower house (House of Representatives), its number of seats fell from 276 in the previous house. The LDP's coalition partner, Komeito, won 32 seats.

Given that the media and election experts had said the LDP could lose between 30 and 60 seats in the Oct 31 election, the result could be seen as a big victory for Kishida.

That the LDP won an unprecedented percentage of votes via proportional representation this time suggests the majority of the voters appreciate its achievements. But judging by media reports and public reaction many people seem unhappy with the LDP and its way of functioning－and want reform.

Indeed, some LDP members are trying to introduce reforms. For example, Shinjiro Koizumi, who is considered a reformer in the LDP, has called for a "regenerated LDP" to change the gerontocracy which has dominated the party for years, and veteran politician Taro Kono has formed the "Party Renewal Association" to introduce reforms in the LDP. These moves were welcomed by LDP members and the media alike, and might have helped the party win the general election.

Before the election, Japan's COVID-19 infection rate had fallen to a record low, with daily cases remaining below 300 for days. So the easing pandemic situation, too, might have facilitated the LDP's victory.

Yet what appears to have impressed the voters most is Kishida's economic policy.

In his first policy speech on Oct 8, Kishida said he would boost Japan's economy with a "new form of capitalism" and use its fruits to expand the country's middle class. The idea, he said, is to build "a virtuous cycle of growth and distribution of wealth and the development of a new post-pandemic society".

Kishida also vowed to move Japan away from neoliberalism and "Abenomics", because they had failed to improve Japanese people's livelihoods and instead widened the rich-poor gap, especially since the pandemic broke out.

According to a nationwide survey conducted by Kyodo News on the last two days of October, 34.7 percent of the respondents said economic policy is their top concern when it comes to choosing a party or candidate in elections, followed by anti-pandemic measures at 19.4 percent.

However, the fact that the LDP has won a majority in the lower house means it retains control of almost all the parliamentary committees and therefore can push through any contentious legislation through parliament.

More important, the election victory, which has strengthened Kishida's influence in the party, will give him a chance to implement his agendas, although he is more likely to focus on domestic issues such as anti-pandemic measures and economic recovery. But he has to strike the right balance between containing the pandemic and boosting the economy, in order to avoid repeating his predecessor Yoshihide Suga's mistakes, which is a difficult task.

Kishida has always attached importance to the economy. He is in favor of boosting the domestic economy while deepening economic cooperation with other countries, especially regional countries.

Also, compared with the other contenders for the LDP leader's post, Kishida had proposed clearer and more systematic political plans. For example, he founded a consulting organization in 2017 to research what kinds of economic, industrial, social and environmental policies can ensure Japanese people live a prosperous life in an aging society.

Kishida's new economic policy, however, will face the biggest challenge eight months later from conservative groups in the LDP, and the United States. As the leader of the LDP's Kochikai (Broad Pond Society) faction, Kishida is liberal and dovish. He supports Japan's pacifist Constitution, is concerned more about the economy than the defense budget and prioritizes improving Japan's relations with neighboring countries.

Yet he has to cooperate with conservative LDP members, who are under the influence of former prime minister Shinzo Abe, to maintain political stability. Speaking at a news conference on Nov 1, Kishida said he would "vigorously work to achieve the party platform of revising the Constitution". He also said that, during his term as LDP president which runs through September 2024, he wants to realize the four points on constitutional revision highlighted in the party's platform in the run-up to the election, including specifying the grounds for the Self-Defense Forces and creating an emergency clause for preemptive strike.

In fact, the LDP aims to double the defense budget to about 2 percent of the GDP, and has said it will consider developing the capability to launch strikes on enemy bases as part of efforts to strengthen deterrence.

The most challenging thing for Kishida to do is balancing Japan's relations with China and the United States. Washington has vowed to strengthen the US-Japan alliance by asking Tokyo to deploy intermediate-range missiles to counter China's rising "military might", which incidentally was one of the reasons former president Donald Trump withdrew the US from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty in 2019.

But Kishida knows well that his longevity as prime minister hinges on the election to the upper house (House of Councilors) in July 2022, especially because the LDP's losses in the upper house election in 1989,1998 and 2007 forced three previous prime ministers to resign.

So to stay in power, Kishida must implement effective policies to contain the pandemic and revitalize the economy within eight months. And he knows that Japan needs to cooperate with other countries, especially China, to boost the economy and contain the pandemic, in order to win the trust of the public.

The author is director-general of the Institute of Japanese Studies, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. The views don't necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

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