Some questions to ask about the US' chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan

The chaotic withdrawal by the United States from Afghanistan is arguably its worst-ever military failure, overshadowing even that which took place during the final days of last century's Vietnam War. An unknown number of Americans estimated by some sources to be in the thousands are still stranded there while an even larger number of the US' local Afghan allies are swarming the Kabul airport in their panic to escape from what they fear might be the Taliban's retribution against them. The whole world is aghast at the US military's epic failure to responsibly withdraw from its longest-ever war, with many no longer considering the country to be a superpower as a result. In light of this, it's worthwhile to ask some pertinent questions about everything that's happening:

* What were so many American civilians still doing in Afghanistan ahead of the withdrawal?

Nobody can explain why thousands of Americans were still there despite knowing that US forces would soon be departing and being aware of the Taliban's lightning-fast advance across the country.

* Why did the US withdraw most of its military before removing all of its civilians?

Former US president Donald Trump revealed that his original plan for withdrawing from Afghanistan entailed the withdrawal of all American civilians before the withdrawal of US forces.

* Who's responsible for changing Trump's withdrawal plan and why?

This revelation means that someone in the Joe Biden Administration changed those plans, though it's unclear exactly who that was and why they did so, but Americans are demanding answers.

* Why did the Biden Administration ignore the CIA's & State Department's warnings?

It's been reported that the CIA and the State Department previously predicted the Afghan government's rapid collapse in the face of the Taliban's offensive, but these warnings went unheeded by the Biden Administration.

* What's the significance of the Pentagon twice defying Biden?

The Pentagon twice defied Biden by contradicting the president's claims that Americans can safely access the Kabul airport and that Al Qaeda has been defeated, which shows a serious disconnect within the government.

* Will there be tangible political consequences for Biden's Afghan failure?

Republican Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene has introduced three articles of impeachment against Biden and a number of Democrats are turning against him too in disgust at his mishandling of the withdrawal.

* What fate awaits America's Afghan allies who were left behind?

Although the Taliban promised not to exact retributive justice against those Afghans who collaborated with the occupying forces, nobody can say for sure whether they'll be safe or live respectable lives if they remain there.

* Will America's allies ever trust it again?

The US' abandonment of its local Afghan allies and even thousands of its own citizens makes one wonder whether other allies like Israel, Japan, the Republic of Korea, or Saudi Arabia will ever trust it again.

The answers to these questions will help observers better predict the course of subsequent developments connected to the US' chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan. This disastrous event can rightly be described as a "black swan" since nobody could have predicted that it would happen and its consequences stand to be far-reaching across multiple domains (domestic/international politics, soft power, military, etc.). It also importantly defied most observers' expectations of the US related to the cohesiveness at the highest levels of its government and the capability of its world-renowned military to respond to crisis situations such as this one. Nobody will ever look at America the same again, and it might never be able to repair its damaged reputation.

Andrew Korybko is a Moscow-based American political analyst.

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