China to see robust momentum in foreign trade in coming months: UK think tank

LONDON - China's exports and imports are both expected to see robust momentum in the coming months amid strong global and domestic economic recovery, British think tank Oxford Economics said in a report released Friday.

"We expect export momentum to remain robust in the coming months," said the report, adding that a strong global economic recovery would underpin China's exports through 2021, despite the likely retreat of pandemic-related demand later this year.

Apart from exports, the British think tank also said that "we think import momentum should pick up in the coming months due to the ongoing domestic recovery."

"We expect robust sequential economic growth will resume after temporary weakness in Q1 (the first quarter) and are optimistic about exports and manufacturing investment," said the think tank, noting that consumption should "gain pace again as consumers become more comfortable with public health conditions and their economic situation."

The report came as China's official data showed earlier in the day that the country's total imports and exports of goods surged 28.5 percent year-on-year to 11.62 trillion yuan ($1.8 trillion) in the first four months of 2021.

This marks a surge of 21.8 percent from the pre-epidemic level in 2019, China's General Administration of Customs (GAC) said.

Exports jumped 33.8 percent from a year earlier while imports climbed 22.7 percent in yuan terms, the official data revealed.

Meanwhile, China's booming domestic tourism also fueled the consumption as the country has effectively contained the COVID-19 pandemic and the vaccination rate is increasing steadily.

During the latest five-day May Day holiday, which ended on Wednesday, China recorded a total of 230 million domestic tourist trips during the holiday, up 119.7 percent from last year, according to China's Ministry of Culture and Tourism.

Tommy Wu, a lead economist of the Oxford Economics, told Xinhua that "domestic travel will likely recover to close to pre-pandemic levels during the Labor Day (May Day) holiday, which is definitely encouraging."

"That said, should we see a strong positive outturn on consumer spending during the Labor Day (May Day) holiday, it will be a very encouraging sign that household consumption recovery is probably back on track again," Wu added.

China's appealingly market has offered huge opportunities to the world manufactors and investors, as the world's second largest economy pledged to further open its market and bolster the global economy.

"China's recovery from the pandemic gives hope to the world, Hainan's International Consumer Products Expo is a practical step to bring such hope to other countries," said Xiong Yu, a professor at Britain-based Surrey Business School in the University of Surrey.

The China International Consumer Products Expo, to be held from May 7 to 10 in China's island province of Hainan, is expected to be a new window for the country's high-level opening-up drive.