China's road map for next 15 years hailed

'Breathtaking' blueprint heralds even more progress, British experts say

China has delivered a commendable answer sheet in terms of its stated goals until 2020, and the next 15 years will be even more "breathtaking", experts said in response to the recent release of the communique of the fifth plenary session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China.

The communique stated that China has made remarkable achievements in its battle against poverty over the past five years, lifting 55.75 million rural residents clear of its clutches. China's annual grain output has remained above 650 million tons for five consecutive years, it added.

"It can be said that 1978-2021 was the first amazing phase of the return of China as a modern developing nation," said Stephen Perry, chairman of The 48 Group Club, an independent business network committed to promoting trade and cultural links between the United Kingdom and China.

"It has reached a level few could understand and the grain yield is an outstanding achievement. To take out 60 percent of the rural work force to urban areas and more than double the grain yield is unheard of," he said.

"That China has produced over 60 percent of the high-speed train routes of the world and so many internet-based digital innovations is further evidence."

Ben Cavender, managing director of the China Market Research Group, said: "I think what the communique shows is that the government wants to make very clear that stated goals for 2020 have been achieved, and that the future five-year plan will largely be a continuation of current government programs that have worked well as part of China's overall development.

"Reading between the lines, it also sounds like China is expecting to take on a larger geopolitical role over the next five years along with increasingly emphasizing technology leadership as well as modernization and upgrading of certain sectors like manufacturing."

Socialist modernization

Christopher Bovis, a professor of international business law at the University of Hull in the UK, said: "With the recent communique, China reaffirms its resilience as a global economic power and a strong emphasis on industrial policies and science and technology to achieve the goals of socialist modernization, improve the quality of life for its citizens, eradication of poverty and global cooperation for responsible governance."

The communique confirmed the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25) for national economic and social development and the long-range objectives until 2035, and in particular the crucial policy directions for the Chinese economy such as industry, agriculture, national defense and science and technology.

Bovis said one of the most interesting aspects of the communique has been "the commitment of China to accelerate the modernization of national defense and military capacity as a lever to achieve its long-range objectives until 2035".

While in the 13th Five-Year Plan period (2016-20), the country saw its economic and technological strength as well as composite national strength leap to a new level, the upcoming plan attaches greater importance on innovation, which will play a central role in its modernization drive.

Will Miller, a policy analyst at the British Chamber of Commerce in China, said: "Underlying this is a broader ambition to achieve technological self-reliance and become a technological superpower which will permeate all areas such as R&D, consumption, reducing carbon emissions, agricultural development, and national security government processes."

Miller pointed out that the plenary session also heavily referenced the dual circulation strategy as a new model to drive future growth. Under this development pattern, factors such as domestic consumption and indigenous technological development will play as important a role in driving China's development as any engagement with the international economy.

"This broadly aims to reduce the country's external exposure through securing domestic supply chains and leaning more heavily on the domestic market as a source of growth," he said.

Perry said: "China in 15 years' time will look nothing like how it looks now, and I do think the next phase will be even more breathtaking than the last 40 years."