Job losses prompt emergency moves

But fate of workers may track global wealth divide as coffers get stretched

Job loss, another victim of the COVID-19 pandemic, cries for a united front and joint action by both governments and companies across the globe.

Economist Priyanka Kishore, head of India and Southeast Asia economics for Oxford Economics, said: "We expect unemployment rates to rise across the board in 2020 to varying degrees.

"Countries like Singapore and Malaysia, where the governments have announced support packages to help firms defray wage costs, should fare relatively better."

A number of European countries may suffer less due to measures for employees to stay at home or go on leave with wages.

Some 25 million jobs could be lost globally as economic activity plummets due to the pandemic, according to a report by the International Labour Organisation.

"This is no longer only a global health crisis, it is also a major labor market and economic crisis that is having a huge impact on people," said ILO Director-General Guy Ryder in a statement on March 19.

"In 2008, the world presented a united front to address the consequences of the global financial crisis, and the worst was averted. We need that kind of leadership and resolve now."

The ILO's March 19 report,"COVID-19 and the world of work: Impacts and responses", calls for urgent, large-scale measures across three pillars: protecting workers in the workplace; stimulating the economy and employment; and supporting jobs and incomes.

Across the world, tens of thousands of people employed in hospitality, tourism, entertainment and aviation have already lost their jobs.

In the United States, investment bank Goldman Sachs predicts 2.25 million US citizens will have filed for unemployment benefits this week－the highest level on record.

Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research consultancy, had forecast that in April, there may be an increase of 5 million unemployed in the US.

Australia is also bracing for an estimated job loss of over 1 million people within days as the government injects billions of dollars into the economy to help businesses and workers.

The governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Phillip Lowe, said on March 19 that Australia would suffer "significant" job losses due to the coronavirus crisis.

This was reinforced on March 24 when Westpac, one of Australia's major banks, forecast unemployment in Australia could reach 11 percent by June. Last week, the bank said it expected unemployment would peak at 7 percent. The current rate of unemployment in Australia is 5.2 percent.

According to the ILO, underemployment is also expected to increase on a large scale, as the economic consequences of the outbreak translate into reductions in working hours and wages.

Falls in employment also mean large income losses for workers. The ILO estimates these as being between $860 billion and $3.4 trillion by the end of 2020. This will translate into falls in consumption of goods and services.

Rajiv Biswas, Asia-Pacific chief economist with global information firm IHS Markit, said the pandemic has escalated into the "biggest economic shock to the world economy since the global financial crisis in 2008-09".

"For the Asia-Pacific region, the impact could be even worse than the global financial crisis, as escalating travel bans and lockdowns across many countries have intensified the severe negative impact of the pandemic," he said.

While the more developed nations such as Australia and New Zealand have significant fiscal capacity to provide economic stimulus measures, developing countries such as India and the Philippines have little fiscal capacity to alleviate the tremendous effect on low-income workers who have no savings and depend on their daily wages for survival, Biswas said.