Tough road ahead for Johnson in year of Brexit

The United Kingdom is scheduled to formally leave the European Union on Jan 31. But can it complete the Brexit process in the next 23 days?

The general election on Dec 12 returned the Conservative Party to power with a clear majority in the Parliament. But the favorable election result alone is not enough for the Tories to ensure a smooth Brexit before the Jan 31 deadline expires.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, a hard-line Brexiteer, has tried all means to get his Brexit plan passed in the Parliament. Before the general election, he even forced the suspension of Parliament, and expelled members who disagreed with him from the Conservative Party to get his Brexit plan through the House of Commons.

Although a new Brexit deal was reached on Oct 17, the British Parliament vetoed Johnson's Brexit timetable, forcing him to ask the EU to yet again extend the Brexit deadline. The EU obliged and extended the deadline to Jan 31, and the British Parliament agreed to Johnson's request to hold election.

The Brexit process has gone through a complicated path for the past three and a half years. As a matter of fact, it seems the UK has not prepared well for the withdrawal from the EU. In particular, after the referendum on Brexit in 2016, the contradiction between the "remaining" and "leaving" camps has further intensified, and even divisions within the Tories over Brexit have arisen.

So will the Brexit puzzle be solved after more than three years at the end of this month? After the election, the Conservative members of Parliament voiced support for Johnson's withdrawal proposal. Since an overwhelming majority of Tories in Parliament want Britain to exit the EU on schedule, the opposition of some individual Tory members to Johnson's plan will have little impact on the end result. And the fact that the Brexit deal has undergone a second reading in the Parliament indicates that the Brexit process can be completed on schedule.

But a more thorny issue lies ahead for Johnson: how to hammer out a deal on post-Brexit UK-EU trade relations that is acceptable to both Britain and the EU, and can be endorsed by the British Parliament. In particular, the grave disagreements between Britain and the EU on trade relations are the main factor that will decide whether it will be a hard or soft Brexit. Given the huge trade interests of both sides, it is obvious that Johnson wants to maintain good trade relations, marked by zero tariff and zero quota, with the EU.

However, the EU has maintained a tough stance on the issue. For example, French President Emmanuel Macron said that if Britain wants to maintain close trade relations with the EU, it has to conform to EU rules and standards, especially on labor and the environment.

Striking a reasonable deal with the EU within a short time is a tough challenge that Johnson faces. And since the Parliament approved the European Union (Withdrawal Agreement) Bill on Dec 20, which contains the provisions of non-extension of the transition period, there is a strong possibility that it would be a no-deal Brexit. Which means the UK is back to where it started on the Brexit process.

It is true that the Tories have won the election, but Britain's future relations with the EU is still uncertain and will continue to roil British politics, which could widen the political divide if UK-EU relations are not properly handled. The Tory government will probably face a slew of other tricky problems including Scottish independence and Northern Ireland "backstop" issues following Brexit.

The author is a researcher at the Institute of European Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. The views don't necessarily represent those of China Daily.