De-escalation of violence positive signal for HK investors

The largely peaceful mass rally last Sunday has been taken by many investors as a clear indication that the violence in anti-government protests that rocked the city in the past six months is subsiding.

To be sure, nobody expects the civil unrest that has deepened the mistrust between the public and the establishment, particularly the police, is going away any time soon. But the deescalation of violence can create the right atmosphere for the government to initiate the process of reconciliation.

Of course, investors have other things to worry about. For now though, their mood seems to have improved as reflected in the surge in the benchmark index of Hong Kong stocks by about 1.3 percent, or more than 330 points, in the morning.

Meanwhile, the economic outlook has remained dismal. The nagging Sino-US trade dispute will continue to cast a dark cloud on the trade and services sectors. And it will take many months before tourists will be coming back to lift the tourism and retail sectors out of the gloom.

But the market has largely discounted predictions of a mild economic recession in 2020 after the sharp downward adjustment of share prices in the past several months. The government has said that it would plan an anti-cyclical budget, suggesting a big increase in expenditure on public works projects. But such expansive fiscal policy usually takes longer than a year to produce results.

Any hope of another cut in US interest rates seem to have been dimmed by the strong US economic performance and robust job market, prompting the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged in its earlier policy meeting. Stock analysts said that they didn’t expect any change in the Fed’s position in many months to come.

Under these circumstances, investors have shifted their focus on the technology stocks, particularly the phone makers who stand to benefit from the 5G boon. The obvious choice is, of course, Hong Kong-listed mainland phone maker Xiaomi, which is among the few manufacturers that are selling 5G enabled phones.