US clearly needs a trade deal

Whenever China and the United States in the past one and a half years have rolled out their economic statistics for the previous month, they are taken as indicators of how much damage they are inflicting on one another with their trade blows.

Although the US administration has tried to deny its economy is being hurt, the data for November suggest that its boasts of the US enjoying robust economic health ring somewhat hollow.

The US jobs market, which has been touted by the administration as the strongest part of the economy, is weaker than thought, and the growth of its service sector has slowed more than anticipated. Which, combined with the contraction of manufacturing activity for the fourth month in a row, and construction layout declining for the second consecutive month, paints a much less rosy picture than the one the administration has been trying to paint.

Which is why the US president's claim on Tuesday that he would be happy to wait until the end of next year to finalize a deal with China after the elections is being taken with a pinch of salt by some, who regard it as a show of punch drunk bravado to woo voters.

China has been steadfast in saying that the talks should be conducted on an equal footing and with mutual respect. It has repeatedly said, neither side will emerge unscathed from the trade war. The data back that up.

With the US still threatening that new tariffs on Chinese imports will take effect on Dec 15, the US will be putting money where its mouth is. But as it no doubt knows, its attempt to tighten the squeeze will also make it bleed. So whether it will wield such a double-edged sword and for how long remain open to question.

Certainly, the phase one deal that it has been touting would be more likely to materialize if it rolled back tariffs rather than imposed more, as Beijing has made clear.

That Washington continues to regard tariffs as leverage against other countries－France, Brazil and Argentina became new targets this week－is the key reason why after 17 months of negotiations that even a mini interim deal is still experiencing a difficult labor.

US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross speaking to the media on Tuesday said very few other presidents would be willing to "put up with the stresses and strains" of negotiating with China, perhaps unintentionally reinforcing the fact that the US is feeling the heat more than it cares to admit.

And the gloomy economic indicators for the US mean that Washington is just as motivated as it claims Beijing is to get something agreed sooner rather than later.