China seen cushioning challenges

Growth in global trade is expected to hit the lowest level in more than a decade, but the impact in Asia may be cushioned by factors including Chinese moves to relocate production lines, trade watchers say.

Other parts of Asia are also seen as benefiting from a shift in export demand away from China as a result of its trade war with the United States.

Coleman Nee, a senior economist at the World Trade Organization's economic research and statistics division, forecasts growth in merchandise trade volumes will slow to 1.2 percent this year.

This would be the lowest rate posted since the 2008 global financial crisis, he told the Ninth Asian Logistics and Maritime Conference in Hong Kong on Tuesday.

The annual two-day conference, which ends on Wednesday, was organized by the Hong Kong Trade Development Council and the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region government.

Nee said the WTO has logged an increasing number of trade-restrictive measures enforced by the organization's member countries. He said that from October 2018 to May 2019, WTO members had implemented 38 such measures, covering an estimated $339.5 billion in goods.

"The multilateral trading system is facing multiple challenges right now," he said.

Nee said international trade agreements are always welcome, especially at a time of rising trade tensions. However, there still remains a need for countries to abide by a common set of rules as this serves as the backbone for global trade.

Nee said "trade has been growing at a relatively strong pace" since the global economy recovered from the 2008 crisis. But the onset of trade tensions between the United States and China in 2018 has reined in trade growth. For the first half of 2019, that growth eased to 0.6 percent, he said.

Nee said the trade conflict has also led to trade diversion, with Brazil and some Southeast Asian countries benefiting from increased exports.

If the conflict remains unresolved, Nee said higher tariffs might push up market prices as companies pass on the increased cost of imports to consumers.

Nee said it "is important for this (trade) tension to be resolved (in order) to reduce the uncertainty that undermines and postpones investment decisions".

Chang Ka Mun, managing director of Li& Fung Development (China) Ltd and Fung Business Intelligence under the Fung Group, said the trade conflict has pushed Chinese manufacturers to move their production bases to other countries.

"There are Chinese investments in other developing countries (because they want to) avoid this geopolitical challenge," Chang said.

He said that while China remains the world's manufacturing powerhouse, global businesses need to diversify their sourcing base. Chang said developing countries, such as Bangladesh, Cambodia, Myanmar and Kenya, may become the next manufacturing bases.

Chang linked this possible trend to China's Belt and Road Initiative and noted that its advent had led to a "new stage of globalization".

He said that countries that receive these investments from China welcome them as ways to boost people's incomes and livelihoods. This shift would help upgrade Asia's share of global trade.

Robbert van Trooijen, senior vice-president for Danish logistics firm Maersk, said the initiative offers opportunities to the Asian supply chain sector.

"We talked about how investments in infrastructure support growth. China is (showing us) how to do that," he said, alluding to the China-funded infrastructure projects under the initiative.