Clearing up misperceptions on relations

The misperceptions

Vogel, a China scholar since 1961 and author of Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China, co-authored an open letter titled "China is not an enemy" to the US government and Congress in early July, through which 100 American academics, foreign policy experts, military and business leaders called on the Trump administration to re-examine its views on and approach to China.

The open letter did not get an answer from the White House but from many people thinking alike, Vogel said in a recent interview, referring to the doubling of the number of signatories over the past three months.

"The view in Washington had been advertised as there was a consensus that we must be much tougher on China. The letter showed that there is not such a consensus," he said.

Vogel himself has visited China every year since 1980. To Vogel, most people at the White House have very little understanding of China and very little interest in the understanding of what is going on there.

"The speed of information, cargo and air travel around the world means that ideas of the Trump administration to disconnect are impossible," he said.

The letter said that US efforts to treat China as an enemy and decouple it from the global economy will damage the United States' international role and reputation and undermine the economic interests of all nations, and that the US cannot significantly slow China's rise without damaging itself.

In fact, other major developed Western countries are not expected to shift fully behind potential US tactics, according to a recent report by the global economic advisory firm Oxford Economies.

"The worst thing that we want to do is try to encourage the decoupling of China from the world economy. It does not make sense politically or economically," said Michael Szonyi, a Canadian historian and director of Harvard's Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies. He was among the original signatories of the letter.

"As for the US-China decoupling, it's impossible. The costs are unthinkable and more rational voices are calling," said Szonyi, who in his early years studied and did fieldwork in numerous cities and in the vast countryside of China.

Dismissing the accusations that China was ripping off the US, Szonyi asked rhetorically, "Why are we still doing business with China if it's a rip-off?"

In 2018, trade in bilateral goods surged from $2.5 billion in 1979 to $633.5 billion, services trade exceeded $125 billion. Two-way direct investment has totaled nearly $160 billion over the past four decades, according to China's Ministry of Commerce.

Another report by the US-China Business Council revealed that US exports to China alone supported more than 1.1 million American jobs from 2009 to 2018; 97 percent of the US companies surveyed reported profits from doing business with China; and trade with China saved $850 a year on average for every US family.

"American companies are still signing deals because they see advantages outweigh the disadvantages," said Szonyi, who acknowledged that the rise of China has generally benefited the United States and made life better for Americans, but also has caused some concerns.

Nye, on the other hand, pointed out the danger of exaggerating the fear of China or making declarations of a "new cold war."

Known as one of the most influential scholars in international relations and policymaking, Nye was on an advisory board both for the secretary of defense and the secretary of state in the Obama administration, and he also served as chair of the National Intelligence Council and assistant secretary of defense in the Clinton administration.

Foreign Policy magazine once wrote that, "All roads to understanding American foreign policy run through Joe Nye."

"We have to accept that our systems are going to be different, but we can still live with each other," Nye said, stressing that the two countries do not present an existential threat to each other.

Referring to yet another misperception of the White House about China, Nye noted that China is not replacing the United States.

China has no intention of challenging or replacing the United States, according to a white paper issued a month ago by the State Council Information Office.