Policies promoted to solve population problems

Warning signals

However, since the beginning of this century, the falling birth rate has sent warning signals to many experts. They have called for the relaxation of the family planning policy to alleviate the side effects of the low birth rate, including the aging population and dwindling workforce, which could affect long-term economic development and social stability.

In 2002, the family planning policy was relaxed in some areas so couples could have a second child if both parents were an only child. By the end of 2011, the policy had been adopted nationwide.

In 2010, the National Health and Family Planning Commission-the predecessor of the National Health Commission-released a draft plan of a policy that would allow couples to have two children if either member was an only child. In 2013, it was adopted nationwide.

At the end of 2015, the central leadership announced a universal second-child policy to boost the population. The policy, which encourages all couples to have two children, became law in 2016.

The change resulted in a surge in births that year to 17.86 million, a rise of 1.3 million from 2015.

About half of the babies born in 2017 and last year were second children, the NHC said.

"In recent years, the universal second-child policy has helped ease birth fluctuations, despite a falling birth rate and the rapidly declining number of women of childbearing age," the commission said.

Despite that, some experts have warned that the policy will not be enough to reverse the trend of dwindling births and a declining population in the near future.

According to a CASS report in January, the population may peak at 1.44 billion by 2029 or even earlier, irrespective of the incentives provided by the universal second-child policy, before declining. By 2065, the population will fall below 1.2 billion, similar to the level in the 1990s, it said.

"Lasting population declines, coupled with an increasingly aging population will result in serious social and economic consequences," it added.

Zhai Zhenwu, president of the China Population Association, said a population decline would result in accelerated changes in the demographic structure, and the problem of the aging population would become prominent.

"A major cause of the decline in births is the smaller number of women of childbearing age, and changing attitudes among the younger generation, who generally prefer fewer children," he said.

"The (family planning) policy is not the major cause of the falling number of births. Even if the policy were further relaxed, many couples would still choose to have fewer children."

Births have been falling since the 1990s, meaning fewer women have been born. This means fewer women of childbearing age, now and in the future, he added.

Yuan, from Nankai University, said the overall decline in the population and its rapid aging will see the workforce-people ages 15 to 59-fall by about 200 million to around 700 million by 2050.

However, with constant improvements in education and workforce skills, the nation's economic development may not be seriously affected by the shrinking workforce, he said.