Beyond 2018

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Confrontation

The United States announced it would withdraw from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty with Russia and it was establishing a space force. The antagonism between the two major military countries increased worries of an arms race.

? Expert: Zhu Feng, dean of the Institute of International Relations, Nanjing University

The shadow of nuclear war has not been eliminated but has been controlled under the global consensus on nuclear disarmament and nuclear weapons control since the 1980s. However, the US and Russia have ignited a small-scale arms race and oil has been added to the flames by US President Donald Trump who promoted a US space force and threatened to quit the INF treaty.

Washington and Moscow have blamed each other for violating the INF treaty for years. But it was Trump's policies that have broken the rules and balance of arms control between the two major nuclear countries, undermining the global disarmament mechanism.

The two countries have started small-scale strategic nuclear competition and more uncertainties will challenge global security in 2019. Russia's hypersonic missile rang alarm bells in the US and Russia's draft proposal to keep the US-Russia INF treaty was not upheld in a United Nations' vote. The stalemate in the Kerch Strait between Russia and Ukraine is also a struggle between Russia and the US.

Clash

The Russian navy's seizure of Ukrainian naval vessels in the Kerch Strait on November escalated tensions between the two countries.

It is known that the Ukraine crisis is attributable to NATO's geopolitical expansion to Eastern Europe, and the Crimea crisis in 2014 has fueled the tensions that had long been simmering between the two countries.

? Expert: Zhang Yao, a senior researcher of the Center for Russia and Central Asia Studies, Shanghai Institutes for International Studies

The Ukraine's bid to join the European Union and the sovereignty dispute over Crimea were the main reasons for the collision between the two countries, as the Ukrainian government does not recognize Russia's sovereignty over Crimea.

After the incident in the Kerch Strait, Russia has remained restrained and tried not to let tensions escalate.

However, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko announced that the country was in a state of war and called on the members of NATO to deploy warships in the Sea of Azov.

As can be seen from this incident, the two countries have different attitudes and different interests over many issues. But the incident will have a limited effect on the regional situation, as there is a huge difference in military strength between Russia and Ukraine.

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