Stock markets reflect mix of rationality, emotion and luck

AFTER TWO DAYS OF STEEP LOSSES, stocks in the United States rebounded slightly on Wednesday, with technology, internet companies and retailers accounting for most of the gains. Beijing News comments:

Unlike in the past, the bearish momentum did not become pessimism and the share sell-off did not arouse any panic in the market.

That has much to do with anticipations that China and the United States will be able to find a way to end their trade dispute when their leaders talk later this month on the sidelines of the G20 Summit, and with the health of the US economy as a whole.

A weak non-panic stock market fall usually occurs during an upswing in the economic cycle and rarely occurs during a downturn. This has a lot to do with investment structural opportunities.

During an economic upswing, investors tend to be less cautious. Listed companies in the US are mostly mature companies whose valuations and performances have stabilized, and their biggest attraction to investors is not quick money, but stable gains over the long run.

That is why the majority of their shareholders are long-term investors who are more immune to the movements of the indexes. When stock prices fall, they refrain from selling shares in a panic.

A glance at the whole picture shows that the investment and capital output of US manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries are rising. In other words, some capital might have been flowing out of the financial market and entering the industrial market.

There is no need to be too pessimistic about the falling US indexes, as long as there is no panic selling; the weakening after the previous highs is normal.