Small cities drive consumer boom

Report: Growth in online sales of FMCG products plateauing in major markets

Lower-tier cities are fast becoming the new growth drivers for online sales of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), with even tier-five cities driving consumption, a new industry report said.

Findings from Bain & Co and Kantar Worldpanel's seventh annual China Shopper Report show that first-tier cities in China still have the highest online penetration at 73 percent, but sales are reaching a plateau.

Smaller-tier cities are fast catching up. Online penetration in tier-three and tier-four cities is expanding at 18 percent and 17 percent annually, respectively, and tier-five cities are leading with a 21 percent annual increase in online penetration, the report said.

China's market for FMCG rebounded in 2017, as a growing middle-income group of consumers showed signs of advancing their efforts to live healthier and more enjoyable lives, it found. The result is a 4.3 percent year-on-year increase in total market value in 2017－up from 3.6 percent growth in 2016. It is the first time that sales grew faster than the previous year since the report started tracking China shopping behavior in 2012.

Chinese buyers can increasingly afford it, according to the report. Disposable household income per capita has grown by a compound annual rate of 8.2 percent over the past six years.

"As China's ever-growing middle-income earners continues to seek premium, healthier products, we are starting to see a clear pattern among China's two-speed growth trajectories," said Jason Yu, general manager of Kantar Worldpanel and co-author of the report.

"Our findings show that the two-speed growth scenario we introduced in 2016 has continued to evolve, with an increasing number of high-speed categories. They are driven by premiumization and the increased sophistication of the Chinese shoppers."

Pleasure, health and wellness, lifestyle and gifting were the main motivations behind the premiumization trend observed.

The annual reports have found that e-commerce sales grew by more than 28 percent last year and now represent about 10 percent of the market－twice as much as two years ago.

China's online-to-offline market has continued to grow by around 30 percent year-on-year, with online-to-offline services to homes, such as food delivery and laundry, growing by 76 percent.

Convenience and grocery channels continue to pivot toward out-of-home consumption. Meanwhile hypermarkets continue to lose traffic, which explains why the channel declined by 2.5 percent in 2017.

Local brands grew by 7.7 percent last year, the report found, contributing to their 98 percent share of market growth, while foreign brands increased by a mere 0.4 percent.

"It is the sixth year that we see local brands win against foreign brands," said Bruno Lannes, from Bain & Co and co-author of the report. "A major reason is speed and an agile operating model, which is so critical in this fast-changing market."

Brands should take advantage of channel dynamics and anticipate future retail consolidation, develop high-value and personalized products to make the most of the premiumization trend, become data-driven and consumer-centric by generating their own proprietary data, and partnering closely with platforms for more focused sales and marketing campaigns and more efficient operations, he said.

"Data is the new oil," said Lannes. "Companies should develop their own data."