Consumer stocks spring to fore in Festival run-up

With the Feb 16 Chinese Spring Festival days away, shares of holiday-related companies (like producers of foods, beverage and home appliances), travel firms and financial service providers are finding favor with investors.

The positive sentiment toward such stocks is arising from the Chinese economy's transition to a consumption-led growth model, blogged Ren Zeping, chief economist of the Evergrande Group, China's second-largest property developer by sales.

"Consumer stocks have shown positive signals this year so far," said Wu Wenjie, a senior analyst at Bohai Security's Wangjing branch. "Among them, leading shares such as Wuliangye and Midea reached record highs. As these stocks are linked to people's lives, and with corporate annual reports around the corner, the surging prices of consumer stocks would attract a huge amount of public attention."

Consumer stocks have been popular for a while. Shares of Kweichou Moutai, China's top white liquor maker, have been soaring ever since consumption upgrade became an economic theme, reflecting the rising purchasing power and affluence of the Chinese middle-income people.

Analysts said the market response to this tectonic shift in consumption pattern will be clear and in one clear direction－up－barring a few periodic corrections.

"The Spring Festival effect is likely to boost share prices, given inflation expectations," said Wu.

Around the same time last year, consumer stocks rose and sustained their momentum for a while. Kweichow Moutai and Midea shares soared to record highs. This year, the story could be no different, analysts said.

The Consumer Price Index has a positive correlation with marketplace sales. Citic Securities predicted that the average inflation rate in 2018 will be around 2.5 percent, and this gradual rise will have a positive impact on consumer stocks.

"The disposable income of Chinese middle-income people is increasing. Total retail sales of consumer goods in China in 2017 reached 36.63 billion yuan ($5.78 billion), up 10.2 percent year-on-year," said Guo Haiyan, consumption sector analyst at China International Capital Corporation Limited. "So, the top three companies in each industry in China are expected to figure among the world's top five, and these companies deserve a premium on their valuations."

Agreed Wu. "In addition to the retail sector, major short-term investment opportunities lie in three other sectors, namely food and beverage, catering and tourism, and media and films."

According to Chinese travel portal Tuniu, there has been a continuous increase in demand for travel and consumption in the run-up to Chinese New Year. Both domestic long-distance trips and outbound travel are popular.

However, opinion is divided on the long-term performance of consumer stocks.

"There has already been quite some gain in the index since Jan 1, so certain short-term risks have accumulated," said Lu Xiayang, a small investor. Although he is still optimistic about the potential of the consumer sector, he swore by prudential investments and long-term profits.

Not everyone adopts such a cautiously optimistic stance though. "Caution among investors rises as the index keeps going high after the New Year. Therefore, share holdings have already been pared," said Wu Lifang, an analyst and a former senior manager at credit department of Huaxia Bank's Beijing branch. In other words, there is little room for further decline. Since the consumption upgrade is a long-term trend, consumer stocks are still promising."

Ma Shenxun contributed to this story.