Focus on China's role in global economy
Rana Mitter, professor of the history and politics of modern China at the University of Oxford
A1 Statements made so far show that China's leadership is aware of the issues and the need for reform. This year, there will need to be more action in terms of reforming SOEs to operate under market conditions. In addition, there will need to be more attention paid to a graduated solution to China's corporate debt problems.
A2 There will inevitably be a trade-off between managing to achieve a smooth but slower rate of growth in China and its role as a driver of the global economy. However, uncertainty will also be damaging, so China's economic leaders will need to make it clear what their intended short-term economic plans for reform are in practice.
A3 There are likely to be new opportunities in the US market as the Trump administration switches to infrastructure promotion, even though this is likely to promote inflation. China will need to maintain strong growth in domestic consumption, but should be wary about simply pumping more cash into creating easy credit. A graduated policy of dealing with debt will, inevitably, lead to a slowdown, but it should be managed carefully.
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